Both buying and selling sentiment declined on the last trading day, and the center of spot premiums for SHFE copper fell [SMM Shanghai spot copper]

Published: Aug 15, 2025 11:19

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[SMM Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, after entering the SHFE copper 2509 contract, the current price spread between futures contracts for adjacent months is relatively small. It is expected that spot premiums will still be quoted around 100 yuan per mt. However, with imported cargoes arriving at downstream ports, mostly registered cargoes, it is anticipated that holders of cargoes will have a mindset of selling off in advance, putting some pressure on spot premiums.

SMM News on August 15:

Today, SMM #1 copper cathode spot premiums against the front-month 2508 contract were reported at a range of 120-240 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 180 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM #1 copper cathode price ranged from 79,080 to 79,280 yuan/mt. According to the SMM #1 copper cathode methodology, SMM consistently quotes prices against the front-month contract. In the morning session, the SHFE copper 2508 contract repeatedly touched 79,000 yuan/mt, briefly reaching a high of 79,050 yuan/mt before starting to decline, subsequently fluctuating rangebound around 79,000 yuan/mt. The SHFE copper 2509 contract briefly touched 79,000 yuan/mt before fluctuating above 78,900 yuan/mt. The price spread between futures contracts for the next month was BACK 20-60 yuan/mt. After the SHFE copper front-month import loss narrowed to 150 yuan/mt, attention was turned to the arrival of imported copper.

In the morning session, suppliers mainly quoted prices against the SHFE copper 2509 contract, with transactions in the 110-140 yuan/mt premium range for brands like Dajiang HS and Zhongtiaoshan PC. High-quality copper, such as Jinchuan, was sold at a premium of 280 yuan/mt today, while Polish-origin copper was sold at around a 170 yuan/mt premium. Trading sentiment was weak during the day, with both shipping and purchasing indices declining. The purchasing sentiment for copper cathode in the Shanghai area was 3.12, while the selling sentiment was 3.09.

Looking ahead to next week, after entering the SHFE copper 2509 contract period, with relatively small fluctuations in the price spread between futures contracts for the next month, it is expected that spot premiums will still be quoted around 100 yuan/mt. However, with downstream imports arriving at ports, mostly registered cargoes, it is anticipated that suppliers may have a mindset of selling off inventory early, putting some pressure on spot premiums.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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